The Monty Hall Problem
I feel like arguing. So here’s a classic Game Theory problem I heard at Rowan that we can argue about:
You’re on a gameshow and you have to pick between three doors. One door contains a car, the other two doors contain goats. You pick a door and the host opens another door, revealing a goat, and offers you a chance to switch doors.
Do you switch? If so, what is the probability of being correct? If not, what is the probability of being correct?
I contend that the answer is “yes” and the probability of being correct upon switching is 2/3.
Comments
I love this problem and I say you switch as well. I nice way to prove what’s best is to write out all possibilities. But I won’t do that until someone says “no”.
If you eliminate one of three variables, wouldn’t it be a 50/50 shot of goating it or not?
Not if the one you eliminate is the car! Then there’s 100% chance for “goating it”.
i would not change doors. i think it really wouldnt matter.
Bill, if you map out all possible logic paths and all possible choices, you’ll find, surprisingly, that you end up winning 2/3 of the time when you switch doors after you are shown a goat. It’s counterintuitive, but true.
Work it out on paper. It’s neat.
what the hell, you say you want to argue and pose a problem with multiple points of view (supposedly), then show one true answer?
what am i supposed to argue here?
i still think it doesnt matter. your paper is defective.
also i think all life is 50/50. either i win or i lose at anything.
I thought the conversation (or what little there was of it) was over.
i just wanted to give your post meaning by continuing the desired argument.